Mortgage Rate News

Mortgage rates staged a nice little comeback today, moving back toward the all-time lows seen late last week. Mortgage rates are determined primarily by the bond market, and the bond market benefited from strong demand at the end of the month. Higher demand means higher prices, and higher bond prices equate to lower rates. There has been some concern that the overall bond market (which includes mortgage-specific bonds as well as benchmarks like US Treasuries) was gradually moving toward higher rates in the past few weeks. As of today, however, 10yr Treasury yields (the most quintessential benchmark for longer-term interest rate momentum) improved for a third straight day. This went a long way toward arguing against the recent, gentle uptrend in rates but fell short of suggesting a big drop

It's Thursday, and thus time once again for Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. This is the longest-running and most widely-cited snapshot of mortgage rates in the US, but it frequently results in misinformation for mortgage shoppers . The survey does an accurate job of capturing the rates available early in any given week, but it doesn't take the entire week into consideration. As such, actual rates can be very different by the time the survey is published (and news organizations are citing it as a breaking story). This is most noticeable when rates make huge moves late in any given week or simply when rates are near all-time lows . In the current case, the average lender was at all-time lows late last week when Freddie's survey wasn't accepting any responses. It's no surprise to see

Mortgage rates managed to stay sideways today after beginning the week with a move higher yesterday. This is a victory all things considered. Rates take guidance from multiple sources. When it comes to mortgages, the prices of mortgage-backed bonds are the key ingredients in determining rates. While other factors had a massively outsized impact during the market volatility in March and April, mortgage rates have returned to their normal habit of following bond market cues. If mortgages are taking cues from the broader bond market, where is the bond market getting its cues? In the past few weeks, bonds are just as likely to be watching the stock market for guidance as anything else. This is fairly logical considering both stocks and bonds have a stake in the nation's economic recovery and the

Mortgage rates hit new all-time lows last week. In fact, for many lenders, records were broken on more than one day. That raised the risk of a bounce back this week and if today is any indication, that's what we're seeing. The average lender is back in line with last Tuesday's rate offerings for top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. All that having been said, rate movement is pretty minimal by normal standards as the bond market (which underlies interest rate momentum) has been relatively calm and sideways after coming to terms with the initial shock of the coronavirus market impact. In many cases, borrowers would see the same note rate they saw last Friday (in those cases, the upfront costs associated with that rates would likely be slightly higher). Loan Originator Perspective Bonds

Mortgage rates were mostly steady today for most lenders. Those who changed generally did so in a friendly direction. Either way, that means today's rates remain in line with all-time lows. It also makes them markedly lower than last week. Despite that fact, you're more likely to see news about rates rising just a bit week-over-week. Who's telling you the truth? To be fair, no one is lying to you. It's just a question of timing and data sources. Freddie Mac publishes a weekly rate survey every Thursday morning. It's widely relied-upon as source material for all manner of media outlets. The issue is that it is based primarily on responses received on Monday and Tuesday. The 2nd half of the week isn't even counted. That means Freddie's data missed the week's best improvement yesterday afternoon

Mortgage rates fell again today. Whereas yesterday's improvements arrived in choppy fashion only after many lenders quoted higher rates in the morning. Today's improvement was more conclusive and more consistent from lender to lender. While there were a handful of mid-day improvements in response to bond market strength, most lenders were at least as low as they'd ever been to start the day. Many lenders were decidedly lower, bringing the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed quote dangerously close to cracking below the 3.0% barrier. If you're hearing about rates in the high 2% range, shaking your head, and scoffing , know that you are not alone. It continues to be the case that rate offerings vary quite a bit from lender to lender. They can also be vastly different for different scenarios

Mortgage rates were mixed this morning, depending on the lender. The more responsive lenders had already bumped rates higher yesterday in response to weakness in the bond market and were thus able to offer modest improvements this morning, or at least relatively flat pricing. Other lenders were noticeably weaker (aka higher in rate). As the day progressed, the underlying bond market improved fairly decisively. This allowed most every lender to offer lower rates by the end of the day. While this wasn't enough to get us back to the all-time lows seen at times in the previous 2 business days, it was definitely a step in the right direction. It remains to be seen if this was a sign of things to come or merely a correction to yesterday's bigger market movement. The average lender remains in the

Mortgage rates hit all-time lows on Friday, based on the average rate for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed loan scenario. At that time, I raised the question as to whether that was really "news" considering we were already in line with all-time lows on Thursday and that rates have generally been pushing into an all-time low range during the coronavirus saga. In fact, as far as bond markets are concerned (and they're typically all that matters), we should have seen 10-20 days of new all-time lows so far in 2020. It's only due to the COVID-related mortgage market effects that mortgage rates have been on a delayed timeline relative to the broader bond market. So can we rest assured that rates will continue to press into all-time lows in a gradual manner? Actually, no... not if today is any indication

As of yesterday, we knew mortgage rates were already in line with their lowest levels ever . It wouldn't have taken much to set the record today and indeed that's exactly what happened. Thus we find ourselves in a familiar situation where rates have returned slowly and steadily to an all-time low boundary after an initially volatile reaction (this time, the initial bounce was back in early March). At times like this, it's not uncommon to see a series of additional forays into what are technically "all-time lows." Will those rates be far enough away from today's to suggest that anyone waits to lock a rate if they're in a position to do so? That's a much trickier question. Many times, the additional improvements have been minimal in these situations. While there is reason to believe the current

Mortgage rates move lower again today. Combined with yesterday's drop, the improvement has been significant for top tier rate quotes in the lower range of available rates. What does that mean, exactly? A rate quote isn't simply a rate. That's only one side of the equation. The other side is the upfront cost. Generally speaking (and there are exceptions) the higher the rate, the lower the upfront cost, all other things being equal. Depending on movement in the bond market, certain mortgage rates can see varying amounts of change in their associated upfront costs. At the moment, it's the lowest available rates that have seen the biggest benefit. For instance, there's not much difference between yesterday and today's quotes for conventional 30yr fixed rates of 3.25% and above, but there is substantial

Mortgage rates improved today, on average, but things can vary quite a bit depending on the lender. Several lenders are back in line with their lowest rates of the past 2 weeks. With the exception of early March 2020, these are the lowest rates of all time--at least if we're talking about conventional, conforming, top tier scenarios. It continues to be the case that "off-the-beaten-path" loan scenarios are nowhere near their historical lows. This group includes risk factors like cash-out refinances, lower FICO scores, investment properties, and higher loan-to-value ratios. Combine more than a few of those factors and you can be reasonably assured that you won't even get a quote from a lender willing to do the loan, let alone offer a decent rate. This is being driven by the response to coronavirus

Mortgage rates began the day slightly lower compared to last Friday, but that didn't last long . Underlying bond markets were under pressure from the outset. When bond prices fall, rates move higher, all other things being equal. The bond market has a few concerns at the moment--many of them "relative." In fact, it's hard to complain too much about mortgage rates "moving higher" when this afternoon's final destination was still in the low 3% range for top tier 30yr fixed rate quotes. Nonetheless, prospective mortgage borrowers' concerns are also relative. Specifically, when rates are noticeably higher in the afternoon versus the morning, it's still a bummer, even if the outright levels are historically low. The most immediate concerns for rates will linger for at least the next 2 days . In

Mortgage rates ended the week on a low note (in a good way), falling in line with their best recent levels. This put some lenders in line with April 30th's offerings which is a great place to be considering they marked the 2nd lowest rates of all-time. To see anything better, you'd have to go back to early March. In other words, today's rates are essentially the lowest in 2 months. But as has been and will continue to be the case, that statement comes with caveats. While day-to-day volatility has died down in terms of rate changes, different lenders are still farther apart from one another than normal. There is also a wider discrepancy between top tier scenarios and those that are "off the beaten path" in terms of risk factors. Side note: "off the beaten path" can be INCREDIBLY CLOSE to the

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher this week, but not enough to worry about too terribly much. Most lenders are still in the mid-to-low 3% range and there's not much fear about an abrupt move to significantly higher levels any time soon. Whether or not that makes the market complacent remains to be seen. Either way, rates just haven't moved much when it comes to the rates we can actually talk about. What do I mean by that? While we can talk about any rate for any program, there's only one way to compare changes in rates from day to day and year to year. To do that, we have to keep track of the best-case rates at multiple lenders. Fortunately, that's exactly what I do. Unfortunately, the landscape has been far more varied than normal as we step away from those top tier scenarios. The variation

Mortgage rates moved off their recent lows to start the new week, but only slightly. That keeps the average lender very close to the lowest rates in roughly 2 months. It also keeps us fairly close to the lowest rates ever. In fact, some lenders were at their best rates ever last Friday, but they were the exception. Am I perhaps splitting hairs here? Absolutely. When you follow rates as closely as we do, we're forced to consider not only the quoted interest rates themselves, but also the fluctuations in upfront costs for any given rate. In other words, the actual rate at the top of a loan quote is likely the same for most mortgage seekers as it was on Friday. The only difference is that the upfront costs associated with that rate are slightly higher. Thus, rates are effectively higher. Notably

Mortgage rates moved down again today, bringing the average lender to their best levels since the 2nd week of March. Some lenders are quoting their lowest rates ever, but early March 2020 averages are still decidedly lower. You may have seen other articles today claiming "all-time lows." Some of those articles may even be quoting me (although they don't quote me in support of the "all-time low" headline). Who's right? In terms of the average rate on any given day, we're absolutely not yet back to early March levels. That's a fact. Other sources are in apparent disagreement if they're relying on Freddie Mac's weekly survey-based rate index, which is indeed at an all-time low this week. When it comes to Freddie's survey, keep in mind that it doesn't account for any movement on Thursdays and Fridays

Mortgage rates moved down nicely last week and have either maintained or improved upon those levels this week. The catch is that the good times aren't rolling for everyone. Borrowers with lower credit scores, less equity, and especially those needing a cash-out refinance are quickly finding the landscape to be very different than the last time they received a mortgage rate quote. Coronavirus has had far-reaching effects for the economy, obviously. The impact on the mortgage market isn't nearly as publicized but it's no less significant in the context of this particular industry. Nearly 7% of mortgage holders have sought forbearance arrangements--a higher number than the industry ever imagined. Mortgage investors risk heavy losses on those loans. Thus demand has dried up for the loans seen as

Let's get caveats out of the way upfront. No conversation about mortgage rates would be complete without a reminder that some lenders are very far removed from the averages. Moreover, even a lender is offering rates that are in line with today's average, that may have been a completely different story at various points in the past. With that out of the way, yes, the average lender is now offering the lowest rates in several weeks for top tier, conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. Speaking of top tier, how about some more caveats? As soon as we start adding risk factors to the mix, rates (or upfront loan costs) rise abruptly. In many cases, lenders aren't even offering certain combinations of factors anymore. For instance, if you were hoping to get a cash-out loan, that's quickly become much more

Mortgage rates continue showing a willingness to play by at least a few of the same rules that typically apply. Most of the rules went out the window as the market reacted to coronavirus--specifically the unprecedented joblessness hitting all at once and, with it, an unprecedented surge in mortgage payment forbearances. Forbearances mean that mortgage investors face significant uncertainty when it comes to how and when they'll be repaid. That's had various effects on mortgage pricing and availability, many of them huge and abrupt. While the initial shock associated with the forbearance situation has died down a bit, rates remain elevated relative to where they'd normally be based on reliable benchmarks. That's not likely to change soon or quickly, but at least rate movement has done more to

Mortgage rates had a reasonably calm and logical day--not something we've been able to say very often recently. It was calm in the sense that today's average rates didn't fall too far from yesterday's and intraday movement wasn't too extreme. It was logical in the sense that the improvement coincided with stronger trading levels in mortgage bonds. That logic is typically taken for granted. After all, if mortgage bonds are improving, it means investors are willing to pay higher prices for mortgages. Paying a higher price for a bond/mortgage is the same thing as being repaid a lower yield (i.e. interest rate). In other words, investors are willing to accept lower rates, so it's exceedingly logical for mortgage lenders to offer lower rates as a result. But for at least a month, we've seen wild