Mortgage Rate News

Mortgage rates side-stepped today, bringing an end to a gentle but consistent move lower over the past 5 business days. During that time the average conventional 30yr fixed rates for top tier scenarios fell about an eighth of a percentage point (0.125%). While that only translates to about $7 per month for every $100k financed, it's a pretty decent move historically speaking. Today's bond market momentum suggests the move could be in jeopardy. Bonds are the most direct source of inspiration for mortgage rates, and indeed, for rates in general. The 10yr Treasury yield tends to track mortgage rates exceptionally well, and it was roughly 0.03% higher today. The average lender, on the other hand, didn't change mortgage rates at all. This has to do with the separate set of bonds specifically tied

Mortgage rates Moved just slightly lower today, despite some push back from underlying bond markets. Typically, weakness in the bond market (like the kind we saw today) corresponds to rising rates--even if only a modest amount. The compensating factor today was the timing of yesterday's bond market gains. Simply put, there is a bit of lag between bond market movement and mortgage lenders' ability or willingness to pass those gain along in terms of improved rates. Additionally, in this more volatile environment with rates already very close to super long-term lows, lenders are generally hesitant match the bond market's movement step for step. All of the above left lenders with some insulation against today's bond market weakness. Had it been any bigger, we probably would be talking about slightly

Economic data and mortgage rate movement go hand in hand. A stronger economy puts upward pressure on rates. A contracting economy helps rates move lower. While this is far from the only source of inspiration, it's indirectly linked to other major sources of inspiration (like Fed policy). Paradoxically, rates managed to move a bit lower today despite an exceptionally strong economic report. What's up with that? The Philadelphia Federal Reserve district publishes a highly regarded report on the manufacturing outlook each month (dubbed simply "The Philly Fed Survey"). It crushed expectations today. True to expectations, the bond market (which underlies mortgage rate momentum most directly) weakened at first, thus suggesting higher rates. But bonds quickly found their footing. This likely had to

Mortgage rates improved today, depending on the lender and the time of day! Underlying bond markets were only modestly stronger in the morning. As such, the average lender only offered modest improvements over yesterday's rates at first. But as the day progressed, market volatility favored bonds. Once bonds improved enough, many lenders ended up offering positive reprices. Even then, most lenders don't tend to drop rates enough to fully reflect friendly market movements such as today's. That means tomorrow's rates could be even better if the underlying bond market can merely manage to hold steady by tomorrow morning. Today's Most Prevalent Rates 30YR FIXED - 3.875% FHA/VA - 3.625% 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.5-3.625% 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.375-3.75% depending on the lender Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

Mortgage rates were flat to slightly higher today, following a stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report. The bond market (which dictates mortgage rates) was eagerly awaiting the week's first major economic data. Even though the Fed will almost certainly cut rates at the end of the month, additional cuts depend heavily on the balance of economic data. To whatever extent the data is strong, the Fed becomes less likely to continue cutting rates and the broader financial market becomes less interested in bonds. When investors are interested in buying bonds, it's good for rates! Fortunately for prospective borrowers, today's movement was minimal. In fact, many lenders are effectively unchanged versus yesterday. Moreover, bonds managed to improve throughout the day with those specifically underlying

Mortgage rates were mostly flat to begin the new week, even though underlying bond markets were in stronger territory. Bonds, more than anything else, dictate the day-to-day direction for mortgage rates. That said, there are different varieties of bonds as well as different levels of willingness to react on the part of mortgage lenders. In today's case, the bonds that specifically govern mortgages aren't doing quite as well as the broader bond market. As of this morning, lenders weren't seeing enough improvement to make any meaningful changes to their rate offerings. Mortgage-backed bonds have improved somewhat throughout the day. At face value, that seems like it should help mortgage rates and indeed it might. The issue is that there hasn't been quite enough improvement for the average lender

Mortgage rates moved decisively higher this week as the underlying bond market finally began shifting gears. After the Fed meeting in June, rates moved to the lowest levels in more than 2 years and had been holding in a narrow range since then. The risks of a breakout were set to increase as the market digested several key events. One of the most important of those events was this week's congressional testimony by Fed Chair Powell. Interestingly enough, Powell's testimony actually helped rates at first. In the 2nd part of the testimony yesterday, there wasn't much of a market reaction. Instead, it was stronger economic data and poorly received Treasury auction that pummeled the bond market. As bonds weaken, rates rise. Not all lenders fully adjusted their rate sheets to reflect yesterday's

Mortgage rates began the day in slightly lower territory compared to last Friday afternoon, but they'd risen noticeably from Wednesday to Friday. The recovery seen this morning wasn't enough to get them back in line with Wednesday's levels. To make matters slightly worse, by the afternoon, rates started to move up yet again. There are a few important caveats to all of this. First off, very few lenders are far enough away from Wednesday's levels as to be quoting different "note rates." Note rates tend to be offered in 0.125% increments. It takes quite a bit of drama in the bond market (which dictates rates, ultimately) to justify a 0.125% move in the space of a few days. While Friday was indeed the worst day in months for the bond market, it happened to follow the best day in years. For the

Mortgage rates moved higher today following higher-than-expected job creation in a report from the Labor Department. The Employment Situation (aka "the jobs report") is the most important monthly economic report. That's especially true for interest rates as no other data is as consistent a source of guidance and volatility. Today's was no exception. In fact, it was being watched a bit more closely than normal because last month's report raised concerns about a potential shift in labor market trends. A separate report from the private payroll firm ADP only added to the concern on Wednesday when it suggested a weaker payroll count for June. But the official jobs number surged right back to the high levels that have characterized what is now the longest running economic expansion... ever. Although

Mortgage rates moved down today by varying amounts depending on the lender. In some cases, lenders weren't offering much of an improvement over yesterday. Those lenders are more likely to improve tomorrow, or at least we can say they'll be starting with an advantage. Other lenders made use of their advantage today. The advantage in question came courtesy of a strong performance in the bond market today. When bonds improve enough, lenders are increasingly likely to re-price their rate sheet offerings for the better. This rarely affects the interest rate itself, but it can reduce closing costs by an eighth of a percentage point on average. There were no significant economic reports out today. The bond market is eagerly anticipating tomorrow's reports ahead of the Independence Day market closure

Mortgage rates were slightly higher to start the new week, which is a pretty good outcome considering the underlying events. On Friday, we anticipated a pick-up in volatility as rates were at risk of reacting to any meaningful trade news from the G20 summit or any surprises in economic data. The bonds that underlie mortgage rates tend to thrive when economic strength is called into question. Trade wars and weak economic reports are the sorts of things that help rates move lower. As such, it stood to reason that rates might be under some pressure from the somewhat optimistic G20 headlines over the weekend concerning the rebooting of trade talks between the US and China. But the bond/rate market is also very realistic . It knows that no major changes came out of the weekend and that it was still

Mortgage rates enjoyed a pleasantly flat week despite some volatility in the underlying bond market. The day-to-day changes in Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed-Securities (MBS) were noticeable, but they all took place inside the range of values seen last Wednesday on Fed day. In other words, the bond market (which dictates rates) digested the Fed's message and is now waiting for the next shoe to drop. When it does, we're highly likely to see the current range give way to the next bout of strong momentum. The shoe in question is next week's economic data. After all, the Fed's message last week was that it was prepared to cut rates if the economic data justified it. Next week contains several of the most important economic reports in the monthly rotation, including the all-important jobs report

Mortgage rates rose to the week's highest levels yesterday, but they moved back down today . Although there have been slightly better days over the past 2 weeks, today's improvement is enough to keep rates in the best territory since November 2016. For the average lender, this means top tier scenarios continue to see quotes in the high 3% range. In general, the expectation for more accommodative Fed policy at the next meeting (end of July) has been the primary source of inspiration for the most recent leg of 2019's already-impressive rate rally. It's good to remember, however, that those expectations come from somewhere. No one would expect the Fed to cut rates if inflation was higher, a US/China trade deal hammered out, or economic data coming in universally stronger. While it's practically

Mortgage rates hadn't moved much since last Friday--a good thing considering those levels were in line with the lowest levels in a long time. The ground-holding gave way today, however, as the underlying bond market weakened for the first time this week. In turn, mortgage rates quickly find themselves at this week's highs . But whether or not that means anything too troubling will depend on the lender in question. Most are still able to quote the same interest rate quoted yesterday with only minor differences in upfront costs. Both stocks and bonds (which dictate rates) lost ground today. Considering they've both been gaining ground recently (not surprising due to the expectations for friendlier Fed policy--a rising tide that helps stocks move higher and rates move lower), this could be taken

Mortgage rates were little-changed again today, despite moderate improvement in the broader bond market. Although it's MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that underlie mortgage loans) that have a direct effect on mortgage rates, the broader bond market--especially the 10yr Treasury yield--tends to move at the same time and by the same amount. With 10yr yields down 0.03% and mortgage rates unchanged, that clearly wasn't the case today. So what gives? Again, mortgage rate movement is up to MBS. Sometimes MBS have better or worse days compared to Treasuries. Today was worse . The reasons are a bit complex, but suffice it to say that market volatility (and uncertainty about where rates may be in the coming weeks and months) is the ultimate culprit. Volatility has a much bigger effect on a mortgage

Mortgage rates were generally flat today, depending on the lender. Some were noticeably better while others were a hair worse. In both cases, rates are very close to the lowest levels since late 2016. Changes from Friday would most likely be measured in terms of upfront costs as opposed to differences in the quoted "note rate" itself (the rate most people are talking about when they talk about mortgage rates). Upfront costs simply allow for smaller fine-tuning adjustments when the market doesn't move enough for lenders to change rate quotes by the customary 0.125%. Holding steady today is a major victory given the landscape at the end of last week. At the time, the underlying bond market (which dictates rates) was in the process of bouncing back into weaker territory following a stronger reaction

Mortgage rates have had an impressive run --the best since 2011, in fact, when it comes to total peak to trough movement. That winning streak might not even be over, but every time rates bounce recently--even if only slightly--it's cause for concern. For one of a few potential reasons, these big moves in rates only last so long. This one is big enough and long enough that it makes sense to keep an eye out for the big shift. In fact, if you're in the process of buying or refinancing (or if you work in the mortgage/housing market) it makes sense to keep an eye out for temporary shifts! That's the area of greatest concern currently. Following this week's Fed meeting, rates extended their fall to the lowest levels since November 2016. But since then, the underlying bond market has bounced in such

Mortgage rates plunged today as the bond market extended its positive reaction to yesterday's Fed announcement. The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, but the market's expectation of Fed rate-setting policy has a major impact. In other words, because the Fed generally confirmed the market's suspicion that rate cuts could be warranted in 2019, traders were willing to push rates even lower than they already had in advance of Fed day. Some lenders had already adjusted rate sheets yesterday afternoon to account for the bond market improvements that were already in place. In those cases, the surge to lower rates wasn't quite as epic. But for lenders who kept the same rates intact all day yesterday, there was a huge shift this morning, with the average lender improving by an entire eighth of a percent

Mortgage rates reacted favorably to today's Federal Reserve announcement and press conference--today's key events. But that doesn't mean every lender is in better shape than yesterday. The morning hours saw the bond market (which dictates rates) at weaker levels. Weaker bonds = higher rates, all other thing being equal. It wasn't until the 2pm Fed announcement that bonds began to improve, thus opening the window for mortgage lenders to issue new rates. Unfortunately, some lenders are less prone to mid-day reprices than others. There's also always a healthy fear of volatility in the bond market after the Fed announcement, even if bonds start out moving in a friendly direction. On a final note, the press conference with Fed Chair Powell didn't start until 2:30pm. By the time he was done answering

Mortgage rates have generally been moving sideways for the past 2 weeks. This has accomplished a twofold goal of coming to terms with the strong gains seen in May as well as preparing for tomorrow's hotly-anticipated announcement from the Fed. It has been and continues to be the case that any major surprises (or even minor surprises) from the Fed could have big, immediate effects on rates for better or worse. But just as the sideways momentum was about to lull us to sleep this week, central bank news from across the Atlantic stepped up to change the field of play today. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi delivered a speech this morning in which he laid out the likelihood of additional stimulus measures including rate cuts deeper into negative territory. European bond markets